Europe Should learn from Ukraine’s Diminishing Reliance on America
Trump’s support for Putin is predictable. Europe should focus on its own autonomy rather than trying to keep Washington on side. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci
The only surprising thing is that anyone is still surprised by the vulgarity and cruelty with which US President Donald Trump has sided with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in the war in Ukraine.
The agreement to suspend US sanctions on Russian diesel, the attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the threats to halt intelligence co-operation between the US and Ukraine are merely the latest, predictable expression of Trump’s pro-Russian instincts. Some are outraged, and rightly so. But no one should be surprised.
On the war in Ukraine, Trump has been remarkably consistent. From the humiliation of Zelenskyy at the White House at the start of his second term to the red carpet rolled out for Putin in Anchorage; from the end of US military aid to Kyiv to the 28-point plan for Ukraine’s capitulation, drawn up directly between Moscow and Mar-a-Lago; and now the deal on Russian fuel and the latest threats against Zelenskyy: Trump can be faulted for everything except a lack of consistency and predictability.
Equally predictable is the outcome of his threats: yet another failure. With every bombastic statement and every threat directed at Kyiv, the only tangible result for the US is a further erosion of its international credibility.
To be clear, Trump’s consistency and predictability on Ukraine do not make his positions any less repugnant.
He sides with Putin and threatens, once again, to suspend intelligence-sharing with Kyiv just as Moscow’s attacks, now extending to every part of Ukraine’s infrastructure, have killed more than 80 civilians. Trump demands that Zelenskyy halt attacks on the nerve centres of Russia’s war economy, but does not demand that Putin stop targeting Ukrainian civilians.
It would be worse still if Elon Musk suspended Starlink in Ukraine. The satellite service operates only in Ukraine, not in Russia: switching it off would not affect Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities, but would reduce Kyiv’s ability to intercept Russian missiles and drones heading towards cities, infrastructure and civilians. The only result would be thousands of deaths on the front line and in Ukrainian cities.
Trump’s attempt to turn the argument on its head ahead of the midterm elections is obscene. If prices at the pump are soaring, the blame lies with his failing war against Iran, waged alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
That war has not only failed to end but has spread beyond the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Supplies of Russian diesel will certainly not make a significant or lasting difference to global energy markets, especially when fuel is in short supply in Russia itself.
The surge in oil, gas and fuel prices should not be blamed on Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Its main cause is the war in the Middle East, and responsibility lies, in full view of everyone, including the American voters who will elect Congress next month, with Trump.
He has been extraordinarily ineffective. For almost two years, he has tried to force Ukraine’s hand, conceding everything to Russia, betraying Ukraine and punishing the Europeans he so disparages, who continue to stand by Kyiv. He has achieved nothing.
Trump makes no headway because he offers concessions to Russia without asking for anything in return, and Putin is only too happy to pocket them and pursue his war against Europe with renewed vigour.
He also achieves nothing because Ukraine today depends far less on the US than it did two years ago. It is no coincidence that Kyiv did not panic in the face of Trump’s latest threats: a few hours later, it struck an oil terminal in Rostov-on-Don.
If Musk really did switch off Starlink, the price would be paid not only by Ukrainian victims but also in damage to Starlink’s own credibility and, consequently, its profitability.
Any country with its national interest at heart would think twice before entrusting the security of its satellite communications to such a blatantly politicised corporate giant.
Some Europeans are still surprised by the US president’s pro-Russian positions, though fortunately their number is dwindling.
Had all the effort Europeans have devoted in vain to keeping the US committed to Europe and Ukraine instead gone towards making Europe more autonomous in the face of the war Putin has unleashed against our continent, we would now be less surprised and stronger. On this, too, Ukraine has much to teach us.
A previous version of this article was published by the Italian daily La Stampa
IEP Bocconi does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
