The Uncertain Future of the European Green Deal in an Era of Doubts in Europe and in the US after Trump’s election
A few weeks ago, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, outlined her political priorities for the next five years, emphasizing competitiveness, security, food security, and ‘clean’ industrial policy.
While the European Green Deal (EGD) remains part of her programme and features in the mission letters of several commissioners, it no longer appears to be at the top of the political agenda.
At this stage, three scenarios can be envisioned for the future of the EGD:
1. Implementation Focus: For tactical reasons, von der Leyen no longer prioritizes public discussions of the EGD because the regulatory framework is already in place. The Commission shifts its focus to implementation rather than proposing new rules. The use of the term ‘clean’ does not signify a departure from the EGD's commitments.
2. Pragmatic Adjustment: Aware of increasing resistance, the Commission adopts a pragmatic approach during the implementation phase. This may include granting delays or taking tactical steps back to avoid radicalized opposition. However, it remains committed to the EGD’s main objectives and ensures adequate funding in the next financial perspectives to support the Green transition, particularly in agriculture.
3. Dismantling the EGD: The most concerning scenario involves a gradual dismantling of the EGD. Delays could be used to circumvent or neglect the rules, implementing acts might be watered down, and enforcement could be insufficient. Member States may be allowed to ignore the rules without consequence.
The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States would pose additional challenges for the implementation of the EGD, given the likely shift away from ambitious climate and environmental policies in the US, which would further disrupt global climate commitments.
A digital conversation based on the recent IEP@Bu Policy Brief Green Deal in a Time of Green Bashing - Assessing the Implementation of the Commission’s European Green Deal – Achievements, Setbacks, and Future Prospects, by Aure Keraton, and Sylvie Goulard.
IEP@BU does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
