The Majority Puzzle

In the coming weeks, the European Heads of State and Government will begin consultations to propose to the newly elected European Parliament the candidate for President of the European Commission 'based on the election results,' as stipulated by the Treaty.

The election result is quite clear, and in line with the expectations of most observers. The European People's Party (EPP) is the largest party, with national parties affiliated with the EPP winning in 10 out of 27 member states (the socialists, the second-largest party, prevailed in 4 member states). The EPP accounts for 22% of the European citizens' vote, while the socialists are second with 19%, followed by the Liberals and the Conservative, with around 10% of votes each.

Hence, also in line with expectations, the current ruling coalition of EPP, Socialists, and Liberals, should continue to hold an absolute majority in the new Parliament. This is because the 18 seats lost by the liberals are partially offset by the 11 gained by the EPP, with the Socialists essentially maintaining their position.

 Therefore, at least on paper, the European Council will likely express itself in favor of the candidate for President of the European Commission already announced by the European People's Party, namely the outgoing President Ursula von der Leyen.

The real action is however likely to begin in July, when the secret ballot for the election of the EC President will take place. In June 2019 the process was anything from straightforward: the Heads of State and Government indicated a candidate from the largest party (the European People's Party), but they deviated from the initially appointed candidate, Manfred Weber, to converge on von der Leyen, under French pressure. Consequently, the election was not obvious. 

The majority could count on 444 votes on paper, with an absolute majority threshold of 374. Additionally, the Polish PiS conservatives (24 members) and part of the Italian Five Stars (14 members) declared they would vote in favor. Yet von der Leyen was elected with only 383 votes, that is with around one hundred dissident votes within the majority coalition.

Today, the ruling coalition should count on approximately 410 votes against a majority threshold of 361. However, there is again a risk of dissidents, partly because President Emmanuel Macron has openly considered an alternative candidate in recent weeks, making the liberal group potentially less cohesive, and partly due to historical hostility from some socialists towards the outgoing Commission’s President. 

Many Options on the Table 

Tensions also seems to exist within some national EPP parties, with 20% of votes within the party against von der Leyen at the time of her appointment as a candidate. Thus, the issue arises of whether and how to expand the ruling coalition in the new European Parliament, starting with the election of the Commission’s President. Considering the possible majorities, at least four scenarios seem to emerge.

The first hypothesis is a common front against the rise of Eurosceptic right-wing forces. Those forces won in France and Austria with parties affiliated with the Identity and Democracy group, in Italy and the Czech Republic with parties affiliated with the ECR group, and in Hungary and Slovakia with right-wing parties currently not affiliated with any political group (Orban's Fidesz was expelled from the EPP). 

Following this reasoning, the Greens could be involved in the majority. The Greens were significantly diminished in the election, losing twenty seats (from 72 to 52), the largest proportional loss among all parliamentary groups. Initial signals from the party leadership suggest openness to cooperation, which was refused in the previous legislature. This choice would technically defend continuity of the European Green Deal. However, it would not reflect the election results, risking widening the gap between the current EU leadership and citizens, further radicalizing the political landscape.

A second scenario is to try to 'split' the right-wing group by offering possible agreements to the ECR, which increased its seats from 68 to 79, the largest proportional gain among all groups. However, this scenario is likely to be vetoed from the socialist front, and within the EPP itself, as the Polish Premier Donald Tusk will never sign off to an alliance with his historical rivals from the Polish PiS in the ECR. Truth be told, the right-wing front is also far from united, particularly regarding the approach to war in Ukraine.

Thus, a possible hypothesis is a 'selective' expansion of the majority to some national parties currently in the ECR, which might initially position themselves as external supporters of the majority coalition and in the future change their parliamentary group. 

This has happened before with parties initially perceived positioned to the right of the EPP, such as the British Tories when the UK was in Brussels, and Forza Italia at its debut in the European Parliament in 1994. Forza Italia was initially isolated, then gradually joined the EPP group during the 1994-99 legislature, and finally, after five years, entered the European People's Party. Here, the balance will be tipped by the choices of Giorgia Meloni, who is the leader of the largest parliamentary group within the ECR.

The last scenario, perhaps the most likely, is that the expansion of the ruling coalition will not be structurally achieved before the election of the Commission’s President, and hence the political issues will come to the forefront during that appointment procedure, with all the accompanying risks and uncertainties. 

Still, given the current political framework, neither France nor Germany (representing the main liberal and socialist parties) have an interest in creating instability, and in this new context a re-election of Ursula von der Leyen might represent a reassuring signal of continuity.

It is therefore possible that even the election of the Commission President will not change the overall picture, with the real game taking place whenever the European Parliament is called to vote on the fundamental choices that Europe will face in the coming years, from managing the digital and green transitions to fundamental decisions on the common defense and security policies.

Despite all the uncertainties, we are about to experience an exciting legislature.

IEP@BU does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

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