Old Habits Die Hard: Remaking the Transatlantic Partnership in EU and US Public Opinion
In a nutshell, we see that 80 years of prime partnership have created a solid base of mutual appreciation and similar sensitivities. Europeans and Americans still see in the other their most valuable ally, NATO is highly regarded and cooperation trumps competition. However, eight years of American hyper-polarisation at home and mixed messaging abroad have taken their toll. In 2024, 63 percent of Europeans agree that it is time for Europe to go its own way.
A reframing of the transatlantic partnership has been in the making for a long time. For 60 years, the US-Europe relationship has been steadfast. But at the turn of the century, a rift started to emerge. Different threat analyses of Iraq’s military capacities led to public disagreements between George W. Bush’s administration and some European leaders. A few years later, the rise of China led to a pivot towards Asia-Pacific under Barack Obama’s administration.
When elected for the first time, Donald Trump viewed NATO as “obsolete” and the obstruction of his first G7 summit was followed by a sigh of frustration in a Bavarian beer tent that made headlines worldwide.
“The times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the last few days,” said then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands.” (McGee and Parker 2017)
Old habits die hard. European politics moved much slower than the circumstances required. So did the European public. In eupinions surveys from 2017, the European public expressed their strong dislike of Trump. But at the same time, only 25 percent of Europeans agreed “that it is time to go our own way” by the end of his first year in office. (De Vries and Hoffmann 2018)
The 2020 Democratic win of the White House and Joe Biden’s presidency seemed to mark a return to a more cooperative approach to the transatlantic relationship. But Trump’s lesson could not be unlearned. Europeans had understood that the US was in the process of redefining their engagement with the world.
This backdrop – with Trump returning to the White House – provides clarity about what to expect from the world’s most powerful nation and the need for Europeans to adopt.
In view of the 2024 US presidential election result, we revisited previous eupinions work and expanded our usual EU-wide sample by adding a US survey. Drawing on a September 2024 survey, we examined how citizens in Europe and the United States assess their role in the world, the threats they perceive and the allies they value.
In Old Habits Die Hard, we present evidence of overall EU and US public opinion and a breakdown of the results by location, age, education and political leaning.
In a nutshell, we see that 80 years of prime partnership have created a solid base of mutual appreciation and similar sensitivities. Europeans and Americans still see in the other their most valuable ally, NATO is highly regarded and cooperation trumps competition. However, eight years of American hyper-polarisation at home and mixed messaging abroad have taken their toll. In 2024, 63 percent of Europeans agree that it is time for Europe to go its own way.
Here is a breakdown of the survey’s key findings. To access the report with all results as infographics, including member-state data and subgroups please visit www.eupinions.eu.
- 51 percent of Europeans choose the United States as the European Union’s most valuable ally. Americans point either to the EU (25 percent) or the UK (27 percent) as their most valuable ally.
- Europeans and Americans see NATO as a cornerstone of their security. 64 percent of Europeans and 59 percent of Americans believe that NATO protects against threats.
- 80 percent of Europeans and Americans believe that international relations thrive on cooperation, not competition.
- Most Americans (65 percent) disagree with the notion that it is time for the US to go its own way, while most Europeans (63 percent) agree that the EU should do it alone.
What do these results mean for the EU under its new Commission and Council leadership?
EU citizens seem to understand the need for more security and foreign affairs cooperation in Europe to deal with growing geopolitical challenges. But the question is: Will national government leaders of member states feel the same and allow the EU to meet this moment? So far, fragmentation, rather than unity, has been the name of the game when it comes to common foreign and security policy at the European level.
In 2017, leaders needed time to adjust to a new transatlantic reality and reacted reluctantly. By now, they understand that the old America is not coming back. They cannot hope for the best. They need to prepare for the worst – a US that is hyper-transactional, sometimes antagonistic, and self-centred.
Given the political difficulties of coordinating security policies at the European level and the long time horizon required to build a European defence, different avenues to strengthen European security should be explored in the short term, whether it’s within the framework of the EU or within the framework of bi- or multilateral agreements.
Our results also lay bare uncomfortable truths about the nature of the EU-US relationship. No doubt the EU will have to chip in more to safeguard their own security, while the US will not be able to entirely pivot to the Asia-Pacific as wars continue to rage in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon. But how will the balance between assertiveness and cooperation be struck?
The European and American public clearly value institutional cooperation initiatives that were built over the last century, primarily in the context of NATO. Simultaneously meeting demands for stepping up capacities while partnering with others is a tall task. This is especially difficult for politicians seeking to win in the court of public opinion and get re-elected. The responsibility to steer the transatlantic relationship through this difficult moment lies with the newly minted European and American leaderships. If they fail, consequences will be felt for generations.
References:
De Vries, C. E. and Hoffmann, I. (2018). Cold Love: President Trump and the European Public. eupinions brief 2018/1, Bertelsmann Stiftung
De Vries, C. E., Hoffmann, I. and Hix, S. (2024). The Von der Leyen Effect: High visibility, low accountability. eupinions report 2024/1, Bertelsmann Stiftung
McGee, P. and Parker, G. (2017). Europe cannot rely on US and faces life without UK, says Merkel. Financial Times, May 28
This article was originally published by eupinions.eu. The IEP@BU cooperates with eupinions on multiple projects
EU citizens seem to understand the need for more security and foreign affairs cooperation in Europe to deal with growing geopolitical challenges. Will national government leaders of member states feel the same and allow the EU to meet this moment?
IEP@BU does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
