Policy Brief n.44 - Demography in the new European Commission (2024 - 2029)

Executive Summary 

Europe is undergoing its most profound demographic transformation. Population ageing, declining fertility rates, and a shrinking working-age population are reshaping the continent’s economic and social fabric. These demographic shifts are not abstract trends. They are already placing a strain on pension systems, healthcare services, and labour markets, while raising fundamental questions about intergenerational fairness, regional cohesion, and future competitiveness.

The European Commission (2024–2029) must respond with a coherent, integrated strategy that reflects the multifaceted nature of demographic challenges. In the current institutional landscape, demographic responsibility is no longer confined to a single Commissioner. Instead, demographic considerations are embedded across several portfolios, including ageing and health, migration, labour markets, and sustainability.

This new governance structure demands the creation of an operational nexus for demographic policy, capable of fostering coordination across Directorates-General and among Commissioners with intersecting mandates. Commissioner Micallef’s portfolio on Intergenerational Fairness and Youth features as a logical focal point for demographic action, but the task extends far beyond one office.

Drawing on the mission letters of European Commissioners, the Policy Brief uncovers the often implicit but widespread influence of demographic considerations across policy domains. From labour and migration to industrial competitiveness and rural development, demographic logic shapes institutional priorities, even where it is not explicitly named.

At the European Commission level, the diffusion of responsibility in matters of demography creates both challenges and opportunities for policymaking: while it risks fragmentation, it also opens the door to a more integrated and coordinated approach. To this end, the report identifies concrete pathways for action and collaboration. These include recalibrating welfare and pension systems to uphold intergenerational fairness, aligning migration policy with labour market needs, and enhancing youth employment and reskilling strategies to offset workforce shrinkage. What emerges is a vision of demography not as a siloed issue, but as a strategic lens through which to future-proof European policy to ensure resilience, intergenerational equity, and long-term competitiveness.

IEP@BU does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.

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