Putin’s Red Lines Are Written in Disappearing Ink
The Ukrainian military is now using British drones to strike deep inside Russia. Every new Western initiative prompts threats from Putin that never materialise: proof that support for Ukraine is working. A commentary by Sir William Browder
Last weekend, Ukraine sent another wave of attack drones into the heart of Russia’s war economy. The targets were oil refineries, coal depots, military logistics and other critical sites.
Until now, the drones Ukraine sent deep into Russia were almost all home grown.
This time was different. Among them were drones built in Britain.
According to The Sunday Times, they included the Nyan, a jet-powered strike drone made by Callen-Lenz, a subsidiary of BAE Systems, used against oil refineries in Volgograd and Yaroslavl. A second British-built drone was used too. Its manufacturer has not been named, for security reasons.
On Tuesday, the Russian embassy in London responded with a warning of “serious consequences” for Britain arming Ukraine with offensive weapons. Within minutes my phone lit up with messages from many people asking what I made of it.
The answer is simple. This is standard Russian bluster. The Kremlin feels it has to say something, so it does. It will lead to no consequences more serious than the ones we already live with.
We have been here many times before. Since the start of this war, Putin has threatened us over every weapon we have sent. First it was tanks. Then it was F-16s. Then it was Storm Shadow missiles. Each time he drew a red line. Each time we crossed it. And each time, nothing material changed. His red lines are drawn in disappearing ink.
That is not to say Russia is leaving us alone. It is already attacking us, and has been for years. Russian operatives have dragged anchors across undersea cables in the Baltic. They have posted incendiary devices to a DHL depot in Birmingham.
In the past fortnight alone, an explosive drone was flown into a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport, and a fire tore through an ammunition plant near Rome that makes artillery shells for Ukraine. No one has been charged for the fire. But the pattern speaks for itself. These are not diplomatic protests. They are acts of war on European soil.
The difference is that Putin is more fragile than he has ever been.
Several of Russia’s richest people, including some close to Putin, have moved billions of dollars abroad in the past year after growing concerned about the country’s economy and the government budget.
By the end of May, the federal deficit had hit 6tn roubles ($83bn). That is 2.6 per cent of GDP, twice last year’s level and already past the Rbs3.8tn meant to cover the whole of 2026.
The economy really is in trouble. Emergency powers were granted to the finance ministry last month to spend more and borrow past the legal debt ceiling because, as the ministry put it, it needs to react to a worsening environment “not every month or every quarter, but every day”.
Indeed, this week, the chief economist at Russia’s second-largest bank was fired after a series of critical comments about the state of the economy, including warnings that Moscow would not win a prolonged economic war with Ukraine.
Andrei Klepach, who had served in the role at the state-controlled development bank VEB since 2014, said Russia was “falling behind” China and the US economically, and “in some respects, Ukraine”.
Putin needs a war. He needs it to deflect his own people’s anger away from himself and towards an invented enemy abroad. And in his own words, this is not only a war with Ukraine. It is a war with Nato. We should take him at his word.
So I was heartened to hear Prime Minister Burnham confirm that Britain will not waver in its support for Ukraine. I hope he means it.
I have watched too many leaders pledge solidarity with Ukraine in public while quietly panicking about Putin’s threats in private. That private panic carries a cost. It has slowed the delivery of weapons at every stage of this war. It has handed Putin the initiative. And by dragging the fighting out, it has cost Ukrainian lives that faster, braver decisions would have saved.
Nobody should be under any illusion about whose war this is. It is not only Ukraine’s. It is ours.
If we ever allow Putin to win in Ukraine, he will not stop at the border. His next target will be the Baltics, or Poland. At that point it will be British soldiers in harm’s way, fighting Russia directly, under our own treaty obligations. Right now it is Ukrainians doing the fighting and the dying. They are spilling their blood not only to defend their own homes, but to defend ours. That is the cheapest defence Britain will ever be offered.
If anything, these threats are a reason to do more, not less. We should give Ukraine everything it needs. That means offensive weapons to strike the military machine Putin uses to wage this war. It also means air defences to protect Ukrainian civilians from the daily terror of Russian missiles and drones, and to shield the power stations, water plants and hospitals that Putin targets on purpose. Half measures do not calm Putin. They embolden him.
Let me put it as plainly as I can. Every time Putin complains, he is telling us our support is working. The louder he complains, the more we should do.
A previous version of this article was published by the British daily The Independent
IEP Bocconi does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
