Working Paper - The Crisis of Multilateralism between Hegemony and Multipolarity
Hints from History – and some for the EU. A Working Paper by Andrea Colli
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Executive summary
• Definitions and Distinctions: Multilateralism refers to cooperative efforts among states to achieve common goals through shared rules and institutions, while multipolarity describes a world order with multiple great powers competing for influence.
• Historical Origins: Modern multilateralism (still imbued by some “realist” principles) emerged from Bretton Woods (1944) as a response to WWII devastation, creating institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO to stabilize the global order.
• Fragility and Cyclicality: Multilateralism, however, even with different characteristics, has appeared and collapsed repeatedly in history (e.g., the Concert of Europe, the League of Nations), often undermined by rising powers and the lack of hegemonic enforcement.
• Conditions for Success: Five key factors sustain multilateralism: a) Aftermath of major conflict b) The presence of a hegemon c) Clear evidence of hegemony d) Willingness of the hegemon to lead (which is currently one of the main problems, made even more explicit by the publication of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy e) The acceptance of the hegemon by others.
• Current Crisis: Today, at least three conditions (c, d, e) are eroding: U.S. reluctance to act as a global guarantor, declining acceptance of its leadership, and rising revisionist powers (China, Russia) challenging the system.
• Impact of Multipolarity: Multipolar competition fosters instability, weakens cooperation, poses a threat to globalization and undermines multilateral institutions (e.g., WTO), as states prioritize strategic advantage over common goods. Historical and current evidence shows that geopolitical ambitions and power struggles often override multilateral commitments, especially in periods of hegemonic decline.
• Europe’s Vulnerability: The EU, a product of multilateral principles, faces existential risks in a multipolar world. Scenarios range from fragmentation to deeper integration or adopting more assertive geopolitical strategies which, however, may imply the erosion of some of the principles on which the Union itself is built, even under conditions of political urgency.
• Outlook: The “Golden Age” of multilateralism is ending. Without renewed hegemonic commitment and systemic acceptance, the world risks sliding into unstable multipolarism, transactional politics, and potential hegemonic conflicts.
IEP@BU does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
