Italy&Europe

These findings stem from a survey conducted in December 2023, encompassing nearly 13,000 EU citizens. Our dataset is representative of the EU as a whole and, more specifically, of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain. In Italy, we interviewed 1,325 citizens. 

The 1960s and 1970s acute industrial conflicts were at the root of the demise of large companies in the Italian economy, setting in motion a trend of reduction in company size that continued over the ensuing decades

Italy must be compliant ex post, and not only ex ante, with the new fiscal rules if it intends to guarantee the long-term sustainability of its public debt.

The new framework has a higher degree of built-in flexibility. By tailoring fiscal adjustment to the situation of individual countries, the reform overcomes one major issue with the previous set of rules – namely the excessive use of flexibility clauses and overlays, to soften the otherwise too strict uniform adjustment paths.

La Nota di aggiornamento del Documento di Economia e Finanza indica che la stabilizzazione del debito pubblico italiano richiede il raggiungimento di un surplus primario superiore al 3% del Pil nel giro dei prossimi 3-4 anni. Una manovra restrittiva di questo tipo non ha precedenti storici.

The EU negotiating delegation at the UN Dubai conference will put forward initiatives to phase out CO2-emitting fossil fuels and fossil fuel subsidies.

A continuous political drive will be necessary, at all levels of government, to guarantee enough momentum in terms of both the necessary implementation of the approved reforms, and the timely disbursement of the sum related to already authorized public investments.

Our analysis indicates that the budgetary documents presented by the Italian government are based on excessively optimistic forecasts regarding GDP growth, the effectiveness of budgetary measures and the revenues connected to privatizations. As a result, the very small projected decline in the public debt/GDP ratio is not likely.

La Nota di Aggiornamento del DEF (Nadef) e la bozza della Legge di Bilancio del Governo Meloni indicano obiettivi e programmi di politica economica sulla cui credibilità gravano varie ipoteche. Le difficili condizioni dell’economia internazionale e l’intrinseca debolezza della finanza pubblica italiana possono mettere in questione gli impegni dichiarati dal governo, con implicazioni per la stabilità finanziaria del paese.

As the path to fiscal sustainability narrows, so does Italy’s political capital to credibly advocate a radical reform of EU fiscal rules. Italy's primary balance will need to improve by 0.9% of GDP each year in both 2025 and 2026: similarly sized improvements were recorded in only 3 of the 20 years before the pandemic (2 of which were at the height of the Eurozone crisis, in 2011 and 2012).

The former managing director of the ESM discusses the long-term consequences of the Euro crisis and its aftermath.

The ratification of the modified ESM treaty by the Greek parliament took place easily, and smoothly, without the usual political tensions. The text was submitted to the plenary on the 28th of June 2021 and a week later, on July 6th, it was adopted by a large majority. Only the Greek Communist Party and minor parties of the extreme left and right voted against it. It was practically a non-issue for the mainstream Greek political parties and Greek citizens. Why so?

With the establishment of the ESM, the original form of the states' own responsibility for their budgetary policy (no bailout clause), which was central to Germany, has been permanently softened.

While banks are now profiting from the new interest rate scenario, the ultimate long-term effect of heightened interest rates on bank performance remains uncertain.

Given the common monetary policy in Europe, term premia on bonds issued by different countries are an immediate gauge of the heterogeneity in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Europe and of the need for intervention to protect the Euro area against it.

Il dibattito sulla riforma del Meccanismo Europeo di Stabilità (MES) - che l’Italia rimane l’unico Paese UE a non avere ratificato - è tornato al centro del dibattito politico italiano. All’interno della maggioranza di governo sembrano coesistere due linee di opposizione alla ratifica – una “ideologica” e una “strategica”. Entrambe sono fallaci.