Why France Risks Becoming a Major Risk Factor for the EU
The elections for the European Parliament of June 6-9 had a clear winner, the extreme right, and also a clear loser, the economy.
The elections for the European Parliament of June 6-9 had a clear winner, the extreme right, and also a clear loser, the economy.
The advance of the right had been widely anticipated and thus has not elicited much comment. But it is nevertheless useful to recall its size. The four parties of the centre that have dominated the European Parliament for decades retained their overall majority, but they lost in the aggregate about 35 seats (the center-right EPP gained almost 10 whereas the Greens and Liberals between them lost over 40 seats).
Where did the mandates lost by the centre go?
The existing groups of the moderate and far right, ECR and ID, did not gain seats. The roughly 35 seats lost by the centre thus went to parties and individuals that were so extreme that they had previously not been able to join any of the existing groups. 35 members out of 720 members of the European Parliament represent almost 5 % of the total. A shift of 5 % would be considered very significant in any national elections.
It still remains to be seen where the new extreme-right members will find their political homes. Experience also suggests that they will have difficulties forming coherent groups given that they all want to defend national interests, often in competition with their colleagues from other countries. But the shift remains important.
By itself, the advance by the extreme right in the EP might be of secondary importance since the EP has little to say about economic policy. Of more immediate, and long-term, importance is the stark advance of the Rassemblement National in France and the decision of President Emmanuel Macron to call snap general elections for June 30 (the second round will be on July 7). It is not possible to predict which party will win these elections. But what is clear is that the new French government will be dominated by parties, both left and right, that price sovereignty over everything else.
A ’sovereigntist’ government in France will make progress on economic issues even more difficult. The report on the internal market by Enrico Letta and the forthcoming report on competitiveness by Mario Draghi both argue that progress on market integration is essential to revive the European economy.
One of the planks of the electoral program of the party of Marine Le Pen is to restore a preference for French firms in public sector contracts.
This would be incompatible with the internal market. With such a party dominating political choices it seems unlikely that the new French government will enthusiastically promote further market integration, including such projects as the Banking Union or the Capital Markets Union.
The new fiscal rules agreed only months ago also risk becoming irrelevant rather quickly. The Commission will be extremely reluctant to enforce the new Stability Pact. For starters, France is running a fiscal deficit of 5 % of GDP, much above the Maastricht limit of 3 % of GDP.
It is unlikely that the new Commission, with many sovereigntist members itself, will dare to start any procedure against France because of continuing excessive deficits. (As a former Commission President used to say: “Because la France c’est la France”.)
This situation provides an opening for Italy. If the Italian government continues the fiscal adjustment, resisting the temptation to argue that it should be treated at least as leniently as France, it could strengthen its position in Brussels to become one of the essential motors for Europe.
The elections for the European Parliament of June 6-9 had a clear winner, the extreme right, and also a clear loser, the economy
If you are interested in the European Parliament activity, please check a new tool that the IEP@BU has just launched, with professors Simon Hix and Abdel Noury: the EPVM - European Parliament Vote Monitor
IEP@BU does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
