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Financial Markets
2025 - n° 206 02/05/2025
When Will the US Enter Recession? 

In his first term, Trump cut taxes before imposing tariffs—this sequencing helped cushion the negative impact of protectionism on US growth. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 204 28/04/2025
Why Trump Cannot Win Against the Federal Reserve

Replacing the Chair is not enough to change monetary policy, as Trump would like — namely, to lower interest rates to boost economic growth. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 201 24/04/2025
The Moment of Truth for Trump’s Protectionist Policies Is Yet to Come

April’s US inflation data will offer the first glimpse of the real impact of the global trade war that the US administration launched on the “Liberation Day”. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Ignazio Angeloni
Ignazio Angeloni
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 200 18/04/2025
A Crisis of Confidence in the Dollar Threatens Global Financial Stability

A rise in US Treasury yields would immediately feed through into other countries’ borrowing costs, tightening global financial conditions. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 199 15/04/2025
How Central Banks Can Minimize the Damage of Tariffs

There are immediate liquidity problems, and then the choice between lowering inflation risk or supporting the economy. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Ignazio Angeloni
Ignazio Angeloni
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 198 14/04/2025
The Long-Term Consequences of One of the Greatest Economic Policy Mistakes in History

Tariff moves have also compromised the rest of the Trump administration’s strategy, from taxes to energy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 194 07/04/2025
The ECB’s Choices in the Face of Trump’s Tariffs

The ECB might counterbalance the impact of tariffs by steering the exchange rate, but that would be a mistake. Maintaining a focus on price stability is paramount.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 183 19/03/2025
The Risks of Donald Trump’s Crypto Strategy

The administration’s emphasis on stablecoins risks eroding the Federal Reserve’s independence and could weaken the dollar’s global standing. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Ignazio Angeloni
Ignazio Angeloni
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 178 11/03/2025
Trumponomics Faces Market Test: Implications for Europe

Trumponomics Faces Market Test: Implications for Europe

The heightened risk aversion triggered by Trump's policies has not spread to Europe, where optimism prevails regarding more cohesive and responsive policymaking. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Financial Markets
2025 - n° 173 28/02/2025
Why Italy is Attracting so Many Bank Merger Proposals 

After the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB's supervision restored the soundness of euro area banks. Now, it has the opportunity to build a banking sector of continental dimension. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni.

Ignazio Angeloni
Ignazio Angeloni

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