Europe at the Crossroads: IEP Bocconi’s Research Agenda for 2026–27 An essay by IEP Bocconi Director Paloma Lopez-Garcia Readiness 2030 and the New Fiscal Framework Why Europe’s defence build-up need not derail debt sustainability — and why accounting rules will shape its fiscal impact. A working paper by Daniel Gros, and Silvan Hofer The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) at a Crossroads Market-based climate policy in an era of geoeconomic fragmentation and industrial policy resurgence. A commentary by Rose Boucraut, and Romain Svartzman The Century the West Mistook for a Battlefield Military crisis management is crowding out the statecraft needed for climate, technology and economic change. A commentary by Sophia Kalantzakos What Erling Haaland can teach ageing Europe As birth cohorts shrink, societies can no longer rely on demographic weight to renew themselves. A commentary by Arnstein Aassve Making EU Inc. Fit for Venture Capital Amendments to strengthen contractual freedom, legal certainty and scalable financing for European startups. A working document by Luca Enriques, and Casimiro Nigro More Debt or Less Security? SAFE loans and the politics of European defence: Italy’s (and the EU’s) dilemma. A commentary by Rosalba Famà Policy Brief - Stranded Infrastructure: A PNRR Case Study on Milan’s Cycling Network Why Kilometer-Based Reporting Is Not Enough For Cycling Policy. A Policy Brief by Vladimir Simić Policy Brief - Manufacturing First Why Europe should do more to promote industrialization in developing countries. A Policy Brief by Guglielmo Maccario, and Giorgio Presidente EU's Turn to Managed Trade in Steel: The Canary in the Coal Mine The July 1 regime signals a radical change in EU policy, replacing temporary safeguards with a permanent mechanism to control imports. A commenary by Daniel Gros, and Philipp Reinhold The Steel Scrap Paradox Everyone needs more scrap for the green transition, but fragmented rules still treat it through categories designed for another industrial era. A commentary by Ilaria Colombo The Green Transition as a Vector of European Strategic Autonomy? Opportunities and limits of EU-China interdependence in green technologies. A commenary by Thomas Rowley, and Romain Svartzman Crisis Preparedness in the Era of Digital Banking Digital runs, cloud dependence and cross-border deposits are exposing the limits of Europe’s post-2008 prudential framework. A commentary by Simone Boldrini, and Elena Carletti Europe’s Steel Policy Dilemma: Green Transition, Industrial Security and Permanent Protection Main takeaways from an Italo-German roundtable on the future of the European steel industry. A commentary by Daniel Gros, and Philipp Reinhold Why Slower Decarbonisation Would Not Fix Europe’s Steel Problems The EU must manage decarbonisation, industrial competitiveness and economic security together, rather than treating climate policy as the main obstacle. A commentary by Pier Paolo Raimondi Europe Needs a Steel Strategy, Not 27 Industrial Policies Decarbonisation can strengthen the EU’s industrial base, but only if Brussels treats energy costs, scrap, trade defence and security as parts of the same challenge. A commentary by Carolina Bedocchi, and Davide Panzeri Why Tariffs Fuel Big Tech’s Power Protectionism can lift platform revenues and give digital intermediaries even more power than what they obtain from political fragmentation - A commentary by Massimo Morelli EU Inc. - Making the 28th regime attractive for European VC-backed Startups Europe’s 28th regime will not attract high-growth startups unless it offers legal certainty for the contracts investors and founders actually use. A commentary by Luca Enriques, Casimiro A. Nigro, and Tobias Tröger Europe Between Empire and Rules The EU is learning the language of power, but its future depends on whether it can use it without abandoning the norms that made it what it is. A keynote speech by Nathalie Tocci Policy Brief - Go European? How a european supplier qualification authority can unlock cross-border procurement. A Policy Brief by Desiderio Berdini, Karolis Granickas, Manfred Hafner, Francesco Nicoli Task Force Report - More Europe in Defence: Three Pathways A report by a task force including CEPS, Clingendael, RUSI and IEP Bocconi. Chair: Sauli Niinistö; Rapporteur: Steven Blockmans; Contributors: Edward Arnold, Bob Deen, Daniel Gros EU’s Anti-Poverty Strategy Announced: Now the Push for National Implementation The Commission has put social inclusion back at the centre of the European agenda, but the real test will be whether Member States can turn a broader strategy into effective national policies. A commentary by Pietro Galeone, and Sylvie Goulard Policy Brief - Facts Available, Limited Cooperation, and EU Anti-Subsidy Investigations The Chinese BEVs Case and Beyond. A Policy Brief by Leonardo Borlini, and Daniel Gros Working Paper - Whither Stablecoins? The issue is not only whether stablecoins or crypto tokens improve the monetary system or not, performing a useful role from a technical viewpoint: it is fundamentally about who controls those instruments. A Working Paper by Ignazio Angeloni UK-EU Cooperation: Anatomy of Dynamic Alignment Decision-shaping, dispute settlement and parliamentary scrutiny in the emerging framework for UK-EU sectoral integration. A paper by Alan Dashwood, and Jonathan Faull Policy Brief - EU-Wide Inequality and Its Contrast During Covid-Policy Considerations Resilience, convergence, and the role of redistributive architecture in the European Union. A Policy Brief by Stefano Filauro, and Georg Fischer Policy Brief - A Growing Gap? EU–China Trade Alignment in High-Tech Manufacturing. A Policy Brief by Thomas M. Rowley The Future of European Banking Between Competitiveness and Deregulation With deregulation back on the global agenda, Europe’s banking sector faces a renewed debate on competitiveness, integration, and the balance between stability and profitability. A commentary by Isabella Brancaccio, Brunella Bruno, and Elena Carletti How to Coordinate European Energy, Fiscal, and Monetary Policies in a Fragmented World Energy policy is fiscal policy is monetary policy. Failing to coordinate them ensures failure in a world increasingly shaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change. A commentary by David Barmes, Andrew Jackson, J.Christopher Proctor, and Romain Svartzman Policy Brief - Towards a European Security Council Building a permanent framework for European strategic autonomy in the face of U.S. disengagement. A Policy Brief by Nathalie Tocci Policy Brief - An Evaluation of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan Italy risks ending the NRRP period more indebted than before, without having solved its structural weaknesses. A Policy Brief by Tito Boeri, and Roberto Perotti Why Italy’s NRRP Is Better Than It Looks The Italian NRRP should not be judged a failure simply because it did not meet all initial expectations. A response to Boeri and Perotti’s Policy Brief. A commentary by Marco Leonardi Looking Beyond the Backlog: A Fairer View of the NRRP’s Impact on Italy’s Courts The latest data on Italy’s courts suggest that the NRRP has delivered more measurable progress than its critics acknowledge. A commentary by Gian Luigi Gatta Europe Must Break With ‘Juste Retour’ to Scale up its Defence In many cases the necessary technology already exists in Europe, but it is scattered. What is needed now is a procurement model that can match the tempo of the threat environment. A commentary by Daniel Gros IEP@BU Commentaries Brussels Rethinks the Rules Holding Back Europe’s Banks The Commission’s new banking proposals link competitiveness to deeper market integration. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi We Must Prepare for the Post-Turnberry Era One year after the EU-US tariff agreement, transatlantic relations remain unstable. Brussels must now define its strategy for the deal’s expiry and the next US presidency. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti Europe’s False Choice Between Defence and Welfare Without greater security, the continent will struggle to attract investment, sustain growth and preserve its social model. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Europe is Paying for Putin’s War While Brussels boasts about collapsing the Russian war economy, European buyers have just handed the Kremlin a record nearly €6 billion for its gas. A commenary by Sir William Browder EU's Global Ambitions Need a Bigger Budget Europe needs a budget for defence, competitiveness and enlargement. National governments risk protecting old priorities instead. A commentary by Marco Buti How the EU can Lead the Rest of the West The EU should lead like-minded middle powers by offering coordination, restraint and market access rather than pretending to be a new hegemon. A commentary by Daniel Gros Trump’s Tariffs Are About Power, Not Trade Washington sees EU digital taxes and regulation as a challenge to American technological power. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Central Banks Close Ranks The ECB’s annual forum in Sintra offered no clear signal on September rates, but Kevin Warsh’s first international appearance as Fed chair pointed to continuity, independence and cooperation. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni Big Tech Is Turning American Capitalism Into a Sovereign Power EU should not copy the founder-led model that has driven the US technology boom. It needs a form of capitalism that can innovate without eroding competition and democratic institutions. A commentary by Morendo Bertoldi, and Marco Buti The War in Ukraine Will End Without Peace Kyiv has shifted the balance of pressure, but Putin’s logic of survival points to stalemate, escalation and a Korean-style frozen conflict - A commentary by Sir William Browder Why the US-Iran Truce Has Not Helped the Euro Lower oil prices and hopes of a ceasefire should have supported Europe’s currency, but US rates, fiscal expansion and safe-haven flows continue to favour the dollar. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi China Is Building an Alternative to the Brussels Effect on Data As the EU tries to simplify its rules, Beijing is promoting a state-centred model of data governance shaped by industrial strategy, technological control and national security. A commentary by Francesco Decarolis Warsh’s Fed Is Closer to the ECB Than You Might Think The new chair’s focus on price stability brings the Fed closer to the eurozone’s monetary policy approach. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi The AI Boom Is America’s Bubble and Europe’s Problem The concentration of market value around artificial intelligence is reshaping US capitalism. If the bubble bursts, the rest of the world may pay the higher price. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti The ECB’s Critics Are Misreading the Rate Rise The eurozone economy is slowing, but inflation forecasts and market conditions still justify less easy monetary policy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi The Case for Setting Up an EU Critical Minerals Stockpile The measures that Western economies are taking in order to respond to China’s chokehold over the supply of critical materials are unlikely to work as intended. A commenary by Daniel Gros, and Agathe Demarais Tooth and Claw: Why Europe Must Urgently Brace for a Two-Front Trade War As the US and China turn trade policy into a tool of coercion, the EU must move from defensive regulation to credible economic deterrence. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Moreno Bertoldi How Europe Can Lead Without Becoming a Superpower If the EU does not learn to lead among equals, it risks becoming increasingly isolated in a world dominated by force. A commentary by Daniel Gros Italy’s Recovery Plan Has Not Solved Its Old Economic Weaknesses Despite tighter US monetary policy and stronger growth, the greenback has depreciated against the euro - with major implications for Europe. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori The Real Meaning of Zelensky’s Letter to Putin Kyiv is not simply seeking talks with Moscow. It is using diplomacy, drones and resilience to shift the cognitive balance of the war. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci The ECB Has to Raise Rates, but This Is Not 2022 European economy, shows that the central bank does not need to react today as drastically as it did four years ago. But nor can it stand by without intervening, keeping interest rates unchanged while inflation continues to rise. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi AI’s Cyber Threat Demands a European Response Anthropic’s Mythos shows why the ECB and national supervisors must treat artificial intelligence as both a systemic risk and a tool for stronger bank defences. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni Europe Is Looking the Wrong Way on Trade The real economic threat comes not from Washington, but from China’s industrial overcapacity and Europe’s political fragmentation. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi The Hormuz Dilemma for Central Banks For the Federal Reserve and the ECB, the time has come to decide whether to continue treating price increases caused by the Iran crisis as temporary. A commenary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Empty Outrage Over Israel Italian leaders have condemned the treatment of the Flotilla activists. But Rome is still blocking the measures that would impose a real cost on Israel. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci The US, China and the Kindleberger Trap A de facto G2 may avert the Thucydides Trap only to push the world into a different danger: a vacuum of leadership. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti Europe after the Failure of the US-China Summit We are moving neither exclusively in a G2 that governs the world from the top down, nor in a world of middle powers redefining the rules. We are navigating both these worlds, which compete and coexist. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci. Why Energy Subsidies Are Different from Defence Spending Europe can justify fiscal flexibility for collective security. Using debt to shield countries from the costs of delayed energy transition is a different matter. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi America’s Growth Masks Deeper Structural Risks AI investment continues to power the US economy, but widening imbalances and geopolitical instability could expose both America and Europe to a far more fragile outlook. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Moreno Bertoldi From Epic Fury to Epic Failure in Iran The war was meant to weaken Tehran and restore US deterrence. It may instead have strengthened both Iran and China. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci Europe’s Energy Crisis Demands Realism, Not Fiscal Illusions Italy’s debate over how to respond to the shock triggered by the Iran war risks drifting into political fantasy just as Europe faces a dangerous economic environment. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni The ECB’s Policy Mix Lacks Coherence Frankfurt is holding rates steady, but its liquidity and supervisory stance is tightening credit to the real economy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Central Banks Face a 2022-Style Test From Washington to Frankfurt, monetary authorities must balance credibility, growth risks and mounting external pressure. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni US Threats to Europe Reveal an Imperial Doctrine Warnings aimed at Spain and the UK say little about NATO’s future — and much about the ideology driving Washington. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci Why the EU Cannot Fix the Energy Crisis Alone Calls for Europe’s intervention overlook the political and financial constraints embedded in the Union’s governance. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Trump’s Iran Gamble Leaves Washington with a Worse Deal An urgent push for peace risks locking the US into terms less favourable than those available before the war. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci MPS Finds Clarity, but the Hard Part Begins Luigi Lovaglio’s return restores a clear direction at Monte dei Paschi, but turning a commercial lender and an investment bank into a coherent group will demand time, discipline and political calm. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni Italy’s Growth Problem Is Self-Inflicted IMF forecasts expose structural fragilities — from public finances to energy policy — that leave the country lagging behind its European peers. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Are we Still Good Europeans? Jürgen Habermas and the search for a new social contract. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori Energy shock or fiscal illusion? An Iran-driven slowdown revives the debate over deficit limits, but not all public debt is created equal. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Why Hormuz Could be America’s Suez Moment As the 1956 crisis exposed the limits of Franco-British power, the Strait of Hormuz crisis may mark the beginning of a relative decline in US influence in the Middle East. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci Europe Should Resist Monetary Tightening After Energy Shocks Supply-driven inflation calls for fiscal and industrial action, not higher interest rates that risk choking off recovery. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori Hungary’s Election Is a Test of Europe’s Capacity to Act An Orbán victory would entrench veto politics, weakening the EU’s ability to act on foreign policy, defence and beyond. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Why Nato Benefits Both America and Europe, Whatever Trump May Say The alliance endures as a cornerstone of US power even as the White House casts doubt on it. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci UniCredit’s Commerzbank Bid is a Test for Governments, not Markets Europe’s banking union ambitions hinge on whether politics allows cross-border consolidation to proceed. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni, and Marco Pagano Europe after Trump’s Tariff Shock: a Fragile Resilience The immediate damage may have been contained, but the long-term geopolitical costs are mounting. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti When Industrial Policy Turns Geopolitical From semiconductors to sovereign stakes, governments are reshaping markets in the name of strategic competition. A commentay by Andrea Colli The ECB’s Fragile Advantage Temporary inflation is still possible, but only if governments resist subsidies and energy shocks fade quickly. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi As geopolitical tensions rise, the EU sidelines its own ambitions while middle powers could still reshape the global order. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti Trump’s Iran Gamble Exposes the Limits of American Power As the conflict spirals beyond control, Washington struggles to rally allies while Europe hesitates between caution and dependence. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci The Paradox of the Middle East War Overwhelming military superiority favours the US and Israel, but the psychology and motivations of the actors involved could prolong the conflict — with the region paying the highest price. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci History shows US presidents are more likely to launch conflicts under political pressure — but wars rarely solve domestic political problems. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Italy’s Fiscal Rules Dilemma How Rome could reconcile exiting the excessive deficit procedure with higher defence spending by seeking a targeted amendment to the EU’s new fiscal framework. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Lucio R. Pench Italy Should Ratify the ESM While it Still Can With markets calm and public finances stabilising, Rome can turn the revised European Stability Mechanism into a signal of strength — and even a tool for financing defence and Ukraine. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Giampaolo Vignali Trump’s State of the Union and the Politics of Denial Markets, growth and trade data undercut the President’s upbeat claims — and the tariff fight is set to prolong uncertainty to November. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi Why Early Departures Weaken the ECB Speculation over a possible early exit by Christine Lagarde highlights how shortened mandates risk politicising succession and eroding the substance of central bank independence. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni Ukraine: Trump’s Return Has Prolonged an Imperial War With Washington’s policy shift, the prospect of a negotiated end has receded and the war has grown longer and more violent. A commentary by Nathalie Tocci prev next IEP@BU Events SDA Bocconi School of Management, ROMA 07/09/2026, 18:00 - 07/09/2026, 19:00 Partners with Limitless Limits? Russia-China axis at war against Ukraine and the West A conversation with Alexander Gabuev (Director, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center ) and Nathalie Tocci, moderated by Stefano Feltri. News from IEP@BU Silver Age Report on Longevity and Growth Featured by Population Europe A new policy insight by Letizia Mencarini draws on research developed by IEP Bocconi in collaboration with Allianz Evidence-Based Policymaking in a Fragmented World IEP Bocconi Director Paloma Lopez-Garcia’s welcome remarks at the opening of the Second Junior Workshop in Geoeconomics, organized with CEPR and the Kiel Institute. In collaboration with BAFFI Centre. Nathalie Tocci’s Proposal for a European Security Council Is Gaining Traction As the Financial Times reports, the idea advanced by Nathalie Tocci, Senior Fellow at IEP Bocconi, is now entering the mainstream European security debate. A forum for informed dialogue on Europe and the world A new series of closed-door policy discussions has been launched by the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University at its Rome Campus.→ Learn more and join the community Come possiamo reagire ai dazi? Remote video URL **************** IEP@BU Newsletter Subscribe to receive IEP@BU updates, and participate in policy discussions Subscribe now We are hiring! We have open opportunities for researchers to collaborate with IEP@BU fellows. OPEN POSITIONS IEP@BU is on Substack Subscribe to the IEP@BU Substack A new website shows the roll-call votes in European Parliament by MEP, MEP, group, and country, going back to 2004. You can also download the data for free. By Simon Hix and Abdul Noury
