Marco Buti

While AI is driving significant investment, U.S. economic growth remains lower than during the 1990s Internet boom due to the drag of Trump’s contradictory policies. Should the AI financial bubble burst, the global economy would pay twice.  A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

Strategic convergence on security is no longer optional—it is the bedrock upon which Europe can salvage its economic and political integration project. It may also prove successful at the ballot box. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Francesco Nicoli 

The rise of political megadonors is reshaping US democracy. With seven national elections in the EU next year, Europe must prepare for the MAGA movement’s growing interference. A commentary by Morendo Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

One year after the EU-US tariff agreement, transatlantic relations remain unstable. Brussels must now define its strategy for the deal’s expiry and the next US presidency. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

Europe needs a budget for defence, competitiveness and enlargement. National governments risk protecting old priorities instead. A commentary by Marco Buti

EU should not copy the founder-led model that has driven the US technology boom. It needs a form of capitalism that can innovate without eroding competition and democratic institutions. A commentary by Morendo Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

The concentration of market value around artificial intelligence is reshaping US capitalism. If the bubble bursts, the rest of the world may pay the higher price. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti 

As the US and China turn trade policy into a tool of coercion, the EU must move from defensive regulation to credible economic deterrence. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Moreno Bertoldi

The European Commission’s latest recommendations show that, despite EU funds and fiscal reform, Italy’s structural problems remain strikingly similar to those it faced before the pandemic. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

A de facto G2 may avert the Thucydides Trap only to push the world into a different danger: a vacuum of leadership. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

An informal summit in Nicosia exposes deep divisions over budgets, strategy and the bloc’s capacity to act. A commentary by Marco Buti and Marcello Messori

Jürgen Habermas and the search for a new social contract. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

Supply-driven inflation calls for fiscal and industrial action, not higher interest rates that risk choking off recovery. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

The immediate damage may have been contained, but the long-term geopolitical costs are mounting. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

As geopolitical tensions rise, the EU sidelines its own ambitions while middle powers could still reshape the global order. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

Six years after the Green Deal, the EU should complement climate targets with shorter value chains, European technological pathways and stronger common investment. A commentary by Marco Buti, and David Chiaramonti

How Rome could reconcile exiting the excessive deficit procedure with higher defence spending by seeking a targeted amendment to the EU’s new fiscal framework. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Lucio R. Pench

With markets calm and public finances stabilising, Rome can turn the revised European Stability Mechanism into a signal of strength — and even a tool for financing defence and Ukraine. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Giampaolo Vignali

ECB President Christine Lagarde links capital markets union, a common safe asset and the euro’s global role to the EU’s strategic autonomy — while political leaders remain trapped in short-term contradictions. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

Four years after Versailles set out a shared agenda, leaders are still dodging the hard question of how to fund common European public goods. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori.

Between geopolitical shocks, technological rivalry and domestic identity politics, the EU needs a strategy of pragmatic retooling to preserve competitiveness, democracy and social inclusion. A commentary by Marci Buti, and Marcello Messori

Europe’s recent show of resolve on tariffs and Greenland needs follow-through — not a recipe of deregulation and looser state aid that would deepen fragmentation and inequality. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

The tariff threat is coercion by other means — and the EU has both the moral case and the instruments to respond. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

AI investment continues to power the US economy, but widening imbalances and geopolitical instability could expose both America and Europe to a far more fragile outlook. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Moreno Bertoldi 

The EU entered 2025 fully aware of the geopolitical and economic challenges ahead. Its failure to act has left the Union exposed, fragmented, and increasingly constrained by US power. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

The absence of any short-term “what to do” in the face of coercive threats from the US and China leaves the EU navigating without a compass. A commentary by Moreno Berdoldi, and Marco Buti 

Giorgia Meloni’s Italy wants to preserve each Member State’s ability to block decision-making at the European level. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

 Despite tighter US monetary policy and stronger growth, the greenback has depreciated against the euro - with major implications for Europe. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori 

 One year on, the European Commission has applauded Mario Draghi’s proposals — but failed to apply them. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

Not every crisis makes Europe stronger and more united, as the EU’s reaction to the second Trump administration shows

For the first time, the EPP can forge shifting coalitions with partners whose visions for Europe are fundamentally at odds—paralysing policy-making and exposing the Union’s underlying fragility. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

Europe must tackle its "internal tariffs" in response to Trump’s protectionism, but carefully. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori.

In this paper, we unpack the logic—and the unintended fallout—of the Trump administration’s tariff strategy. We present our analysis as an imagined conversation between President Trump and the late historian Carlo M. Cipolla. A paper by Marco Buti and Marcello Messori

Upon his re-election, Trump set out three objectives: an investment boom, a sharp reduction in the trade deficit and a decisive slowdown in inflation. In practice, this proved to be an unresolved trilemma. A commentary by Moreno Bertoldi, and Marco Buti

The costs and benefits of sharing national sovereignty are different across EU countries. In our framework, costs mainly depend on the relative strengths of each national state and intermediate institutions.