Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Europe’s exemption from US tariffs in aerospace highlights what the continent lacks elsewhere: unity, scale, and strategy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

The IMF’s estimate—suggesting internal EU trade barriers amount to a 44% tariff— cited even by Mario Draghi in an Ft article lacks solid analytical foundations. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Trump’s defeat offers a cautionary tale for the European Union. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

In response to US protectionism, many governments decry fragmentation in the European market — barriers they themselves enforce. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

A firm but measured response, aligned with rules and European interests, is better than excessive conciliation with the US administration. Here's why. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Why European monetary sovereignty is at stake. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

As the old saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

Anyone who holds even a small amount of power clings to it and is unwilling to let go. This is why European countries are determined to keep their right of veto. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The US President attacks a central bank that is merely applying the lessons of the post-Covid era. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Eurobonds can be issued to provide new resources or to become the safe asset for the European financial market, not both. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The US-China tariff negotiations and a renewed focus on the long term should not lead the ECB to reconsider its decision. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

To truly compete on the global stage, the eurozone must mutualise part of its public debt—and build a deeper, more efficient capital market. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Replacing the Chair is not enough to change monetary policy, as Trump would like — namely, to lower interest rates to boost economic growth. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

A rise in US Treasury yields would immediately feed through into other countries’ borrowing costs, tightening global financial conditions. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Tariff moves have also compromised the rest of the Trump administration’s strategy, from taxes to energy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The ECB might counterbalance the impact of tariffs by steering the exchange rate, but that would be a mistake. Maintaining a focus on price stability is paramount.

Trumponomics Faces Market Test: Implications for Europe

The heightened risk aversion triggered by Trump's policies has not spread to Europe, where optimism prevails regarding more cohesive and responsive policymaking. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Our analysis indicates that the budgetary documents presented by the Italian government are based on excessively optimistic forecasts regarding GDP growth, the effectiveness of budgetary measures and the revenues connected to privatizations. As a result, the very small projected decline in the public debt/GDP ratio is not likely.

La Nota di aggiornamento del Documento di Economia e Finanza indica che la stabilizzazione del debito pubblico italiano richiede il raggiungimento di un surplus primario superiore al 3% del Pil nel giro dei prossimi 3-4 anni. Una manovra restrittiva di questo tipo non ha precedenti storici.

Amid Trump’s activism, many accuse Europe of lacking timely and effective decision-making. But distinctions are necessary. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Financial discipline, growth potential, and deeper EU integration reassure investors amid rising defense budgets. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The explicit goal of the new US administration is to protect the US tech industry and to dismantle European regulations, reverting to bilateral arrangements where the strongest naturally prevails. A commentary by  Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The empirical evidence does not confirm the hypothesis that the public debt tends to be more stable in countries where the (real) interest rate is systematically lower than (real) growth. On the contrary. 

A policy Brief by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The main consequence of not achieving an integrated financial market is that Europe will not be able to finance the huge investment requirements needed for its ambitions in the fields of climate transition, energy security, digital evolution, defense, etc… 

Even though European banks do have solid Basel ratios, their profitability is insufficient to make them attractive for investors. This suggests that – from the market’s perspective - the system may not be as sound and stable as regulators believe

There is no doubt that monetary policy reacted late to the rising inflationary pressures experienced in 2021-22. The major central banks subsequently caught up rapidly and hiked interest rates at an unprecedented pace. However, as inflation reached its peak at the end of 2022 and has been falling since then, central banks may once again be late in adjusting their policies.

La Nota di Aggiornamento del DEF (Nadef) e la bozza della Legge di Bilancio del Governo Meloni indicano obiettivi e programmi di politica economica sulla cui credibilità gravano varie ipoteche. Le difficili condizioni dell’economia internazionale e l’intrinseca debolezza della finanza pubblica italiana possono mettere in questione gli impegni dichiarati dal governo, con implicazioni per la stabilità finanziaria del paese.