The Governance of the EU

Reduced economic insecurity generates not only a direct increase in demand for populist commitments but also a change in culture in the direction of lower trust and prevalent exclusionary rhetoric, which in turn are further indirect channels through which populist movements thrive

Lack of integration of capital markets is a major source of weakness and declining competitiveness of the European economy. While efforts to complete harmonization of capital market legislation in this domain should retain highest priority in the new Commission’s work programme, there is room to advance integration by exploiting the STS regulation introduced by the EU in 2017 as part of its broader efforts to implement the CMU.

 The main finding is that at the peak of the latest tightening cycle, the ECB monetary policy stance was no more restrictive than it was at the peak of the two preceding ones; actually, probably less. 

The narrative of the EU as a peace project is that it allowed Europeans to reject military investments on the basis of the excuse that we were living in a post-war society. This is not true

The Honorary President of the IEP@BU Mario Monti opened the international conference "Democracy Today," organized by the Konstantinos Karamanlis Foundation in Athens, on the occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of Greece's transition to democracy

The costs and benefits of sharing national sovereignty are different across EU countries. In our framework, costs mainly depend on the relative strengths of each national state and intermediate institutions.

While the focus of the new Commission will be crystallizing over the months and years to come, this short analysis of the mission letters for the future Commissioners suggests that the recent intervention of Mario Draghi on Europe’s competitiveness has been agenda-setting for the policy priorities as defined by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

The September 2024 state elections in Germany mark a low point in public support for the governing left-wing coalition and a high point for the populist right. Often overlooked, the elections might also mark the fading of the German socialist party Die Linke into political irrelevance. Its demise teaches us valuable lessons for modern European politics

If Trump is elected in November 2024, the security outlook of Europe could deteriorate very fast as Russia may attempt to seek the opportunity of taking NATO off balance. It is therefore essential that the Commission and the forthcoming Defence Commissioner begin the policy planning and design well in advance and preferably as soon as they take office, as to move past preliminary negotiations and have blueprints ready for approval should the situation require it.

There are lessons to be learned by comparing the most recent elections in France and the UK. The French electoral system is characterized by two-turn constituency elections where several short-listed candidates qualify for a second round should no-one reach more than 50% of the votes in the first round. The British system, conversely, assigns a given constituency seat to whoever wins the plurality in a given constituency, regardless of whether or not the candidate reaches 50%.

European politics has become more fragmented which makes governing a tall task, but also makes the EU more political. After decades of being perceived as too technocratic and distant, the fight for the European Union’s top jobs became more highly anticipated and much more political. 

Europeans want policymaking that is culturally more conservative, for example, better protection of external borders and more priority on the wellbeing of European natives rather than third-country immigrants.

It is therefore possible that even the election of the Commission President will not change the overall picture, with the real game taking place whenever the European Parliament is called to vote on the fundamental choices that Europe will face in the coming years, from managing the digital and green transitions to fundamental decisions on the common defense and security policies.

The elections for the European Parliament of June 6-9 had a clear winner, the extreme right, and also a clear loser, the economy.

After decades of being perceived as too technocratic and distant, the fight for the European Union’s top jobs has become highly anticipated and much more political 

There is a large positive effect of new membership to the EU without cost to previous members. The EU enlargement seems to be a positive sum game.

In our first forecast for the EP 2024 elections based on our model, in January 2024, we predicted a “sharp right turn”.  In our latest forecast, and our final one before the election, we are still forecasting that the next EP will be considerably more right-leaning than the current one, and that the two groups to the right of the EPP will be considerably larger than they currently are.

Whatever one thinks of the European project, a collision course with Brussels is not only a waste of time, but will also likely undermine the Dutch position in the world.

The polls for the forthcoming European Parliament elections indicate a further surge of the radical and/or sovereigntist right. This result might destabilize again traditional partisan and inter-institutional equilibria and weaken the support to EU authority at a time when serious challenges and difficult choices loom large. Does the EU risk plunging back into an “existential crisis”, as it happened a decade ago in the aftermath of the 2014 elections?  

The pattern of macroeconomic catch-up seen in the EU’s enlargement process is a remarkably positive story - if largely unsung and still incomplete. The catch-up achieved so far constitutes a key backdrop to today’s debate about further enlargement.  Without the rapid growth of the most recently acceding states it would be impossible for the EU to contemplate taking further poor members.

The new framework has a higher degree of built-in flexibility. By tailoring fiscal adjustment to the situation of individual countries, the reform overcomes one major issue with the previous set of rules – namely the excessive use of flexibility clauses and overlays, to soften the otherwise too strict uniform adjustment paths.

The Council and High Representative for foreign Affairs must ensure that Common Foreign and Security Policy do not deprive individuals of their rights, and must, as a matter of EU constitutional law, include in all instruments a jurisdictional clause indicating the national court responsible to ensure effective judicial protection.

As the discussion on the next EU enlargement that might include Ukraine in the bloc proceeds, the support of European citizens to support Ukrainians remains solid but not as solid as in the recent past. Eupinions - a Bertelsman Stigtung project - has monitored how the EU sentiment has evolved towards Ukraine over 18 months.

We identify specific industrial products that are projected to be in high demand in the EU and can be realistically produced given North African countries’ existing capabilities. Specializing in these products, North African countries can diversify their export basket, which has been shown to correlate positively with economic development.

The EU should be ready to offer candidate countries at least participation in the single market, partial access to the EU's budget, and observer status in EU institutions by 2030.

The way the EU Commission and governments envisage launching future enlargements without strengthening the EU in parallel could have negative consequences for all Europeans, in the EU and in candidate countries.

Whatever comes out of this election result, Dutch politics has become more volatile and complex in the coming years. This will likely have consequences not only for the Netherlands but also for the EU

Ralph Ossa, a professor of Economics at the University of Zurich currently on leave, has been appointed as the WTO chief economist in the most challenging time for the organization.  In the first World Trade Report since his appointment, Ralph Ossa and his colleagues challenge the prevalent narrative of an inevitable decline of globalization that we have experienced in the last three decades.  

A continuous political drive will be necessary, at all levels of government, to guarantee enough momentum in terms of both the necessary implementation of the approved reforms, and the timely disbursement of the sum related to already authorized public investments.

How can broad public support for policy reforms and gridlock be overcome? The main mechanism for achieving this in political systems across the democratic world is open competition for the main executive office: the President of the Commission, in the case of the EU.  

Rebuilding trust in the EU would entail the recognition that the winners of yesterday are not the winners of today or tomorrow. In a world of endemic uncertainty and repeated shocks, to avoid zero-sum games, an insurance-based solidarity is needed where support will depend on who suffers more from the shocks.  

To understand the feasibility of further integration, we study the extent and evolution of cultural and policy views heterogeneity in Europe leveraging international survey data. We calculate the distribution of cultural and policy views distance both across and within countries.  We find that cultural heterogeneity has increased along both dimensions in the past but has decreased in the most recent wave.

If Russia's invasion and assault on Ukraine can be unequivocally classified as aggression, then the response to this violation must also adhere to international legal standards.