Publications

Our Latest Publications

MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 110

If Trump is elected in November 2024, the security outlook of Europe could deteriorate very fast as Russia may attempt to seek the opportunity of taking NATO off balance. It is therefore essential that the Commission and the forthcoming Defence Commissioner begin the policy planning and design well in advance and preferably as soon as they take office, as to move past preliminary negotiations and have blueprints ready for approval should the situation require it.

Francesco Nicoli
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 107

There are lessons to be learned by comparing the most recent elections in France and the UK. The French electoral system is characterized by two-turn constituency elections where several short-listed candidates qualify for a second round should no-one reach more than 50% of the votes in the first round. The British system, conversely, assigns a given constituency seat to whoever wins the plurality in a given constituency, regardless of whether or not the candidate reaches 50%.

Francesco Nicoli
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 104

The latest European Defence Industrial Strategy outlines a commitment to support investments by Member States and the European defence industry in the development and market introduction of cutting-edge defence technologies and capabilities. 

Enrico Letta
wEUbinar pnrr
2024 - n° 102

The European Sovereign Bond market gyrations erupted in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a snap parliamentary vote after his party’s defeat to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the European elections have sparked a debate on the opportunity of an activation of the Transmission Protection Mechanism (TPI). 
 

Carlo Favero, Massimo Amato, Dev Srivastava
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 97

It is therefore possible that even the election of the Commission President will not change the overall picture, with the real game taking place whenever the European Parliament is called to vote on the fundamental choices that Europe will face in the coming years, from managing the digital and green transitions to fundamental decisions on the common defense and security policies.

Carlo Altomonte
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 93

"I live in Milan, I vote for Europe." This is the name of the initiative through which the Municipality of Milan, the European Parliament, and the Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University worked together to chat with Milanese residents about Europe.

Pietro Galeone
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 92

C’è una sorta di meccanismo “Comma 22” che alle elezioni europee si declina così: i giovani sentono la politica come distante dai loro problemi e per questo votano meno, ma proprio perché votano meno la politica dà loro meno peso. Come si risolve?

Pietro Galeone
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 89

In our first forecast for the EP 2024 elections based on our model, in January 2024, we predicted a “sharp right turn”.  In our latest forecast, and our final one before the election, we are still forecasting that the next EP will be considerably more right-leaning than the current one, and that the two groups to the right of the EPP will be considerably larger than they currently are.

Simon Hix
ai 3
2024 - n° 87

ASML has a global monopoly on EUV, the most advanced lithography technology that is on the Wassenaar Arrangement list of dual-use technologies and requires an export license. The Dutch government approved the export license of EUV-technology to China in 2018. The US government was not pleased and tried to press its ally to consider the security issues. 

Sanne van der Lugt
ottaviano
2024 - n° 80

European automakers currently face increasing pressures. While the region’s manufacturers long dominated global sales revenues, several competitors from Asia have recently moved into the top ten.  But European companies have faced similar difficulties before, and the responses of the region’s automakers and policymakers to previous challenges offer insight for the present, especially on the issues of global competition and energy transition.  

Grace Ballor
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 77

It is now over two years since Russia launched its brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ever since those early days, a broad network of CEPR economists has been working intensively with colleagues in Ukraine and across the international research and policy communities to explore how to tackle the big economic challenges of the war and how to plan for the country’s post-war reconstruction. 
 

Elena Carletti
ottaviano
2024 - n° 76

It is often assumed that Germany’s economic relations with China are so important that Berlin tends to take a softer stance on China-EU relations than its EU partners – or at least that this used to be the case until most recently. In particular, it is feared that German industry might be more vulnerable to disruptions of the supply of Chinese inputs than other European countries. However, this impression of a greater dependency of German industry and its supply chains from China is not borne out by the data.

Samina Sultan
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 75

Through its missions and governance, Horizon Europe does not meet the innovation challenge and anchors our industry in the mid-tech range. This report argues that current European efforts, while laudable, are insufficient, in both quantity and quality. Important reforms are required to enable Europe to compete in the value-creating space.

Daniel Gros, Giorgio Presidente, Jean Tirole, Clemens Fuest, Philippe-Leo P. Mengel
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 74

The concept of green backlash has recently become more salient in the news, in part due to the widespread farmers’ protests held in a number of European countries. However, there is so far not much robust empirical evidence of an electoral penalty against governments that implement ambitious climate policies.

Silvia Pianta
wEUbinar pnrr
2024 - n° 72

This paper shows that the current operational framework of monetary policy relying on excess liquidity, together with a high level of interest rates, produces a remarkable redistribution of interest payments across the national central banks of the Eurosystem, due to the rules governing the pooling of monetary income among them. This mechanism implies significant fiscal transfers across the member countries of the euro area. Our estimates for 2023 show that their size can be in the order of several billion euro. 

Angelo Baglioni
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 71

The polls for the forthcoming European Parliament elections indicate a further surge of the radical and/or sovereigntist right. This result might destabilize again traditional partisan and inter-institutional equilibria and weaken the support to EU authority at a time when serious challenges and difficult choices loom large. Does the EU risk plunging back into an “existential crisis”, as it happened a decade ago in the aftermath of the 2014 elections?  

Maurizio Ferrera
wEUbinar pnrr
2024 - n° 70

This policy brief highlights that while the green subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act of the United States are homogeneous across beneficiaries, the subsidies associated with the Green Deal industrial plan are highly fragmented across European member States. We quantify the extent of resource misallocation due to this subsidy dispersion by using the model of Hsieh and Klenow (2009), calibrated on the EU electricity-producing industry. We compare both the actual allocation of subsidies, and a policy of subsidies coordinated at the EU level, to a hypothetical frictionless benchmark with no subsidies. We find that moving to coordinated subsidies can increase productivity by more than 30% with respect to the uncoordinated scenario, substantially reduce the productivity gap with the United States, and generate gains worth up to 6% of the EU value-added in the industries considered. Policy recommendations include greater EU-level coordination to minimize misallocation and enhance productivity. 

Carlo Altomonte, Giorgio Presidente
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 69

The EU-sponsored Eurobarometer polls routinely estimate support for EU defence integration between 70% and 80% of respondents, while a recent poll by the independent Bertelsmann Stiftung polling branch, Euopinions, returned a 87% support level. However, the devil is in the details: what is meant by “European defence policy” can wildly differ between people, and these simple questions present no trade-offs. 

Francesco Nicoli
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 68

The pattern of macroeconomic catch-up seen in the EU’s enlargement process is a remarkably positive story - if largely unsung and still incomplete. The catch-up achieved so far constitutes a key backdrop to today’s debate about further enlargement.  Without the rapid growth of the most recently acceding states it would be impossible for the EU to contemplate taking further poor members.

Michael Emerson, Daniel Gros
wEUbinar pnrr
2024 - n° 67

This paper, prepared on a request by the European Parliament, contributes to a reflection aimed at identifying ways to revive and upgrade the banking union, so as to enable it to cope with the major transformational challenges facing Europe as we move forward in the 21st century: Green, Digital, Geo-Strategic and Structural. 

Ignazio Angeloni
wEUbinar pnrr
2024 - n° 64

The euro area has been subject to a series of very different shocks, some of which, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, were unprecedented. While the ECB’s reaction to these deflationary shocks was vigorous, it persisted too long with its expansionary measures and failed to see their inflationary impact when energy prices shot up. The future is likely to bring new challenges, but climate change might not be the most important threat to price and financial stability.

This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 15 February 2024.

Daniel Gros, farzaneh shamsfakhr
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 63

Even though European banks do have solid Basel ratios, their profitability is insufficient to make them attractive for investors. This suggests that – from the market’s perspective - the system may not be as sound and stable as regulators believe

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
MANIFESTO 2
2024 - n° 26

A key factor that policy often overlooks is substitutability. Almost every raw material has substitutes. A combination of substitution and some stock piling would be sufficient to de-risk the supply of raw materials to a large extent.

Daniel Gros
MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 57

On December 200,2023, The European Parliament and the Council agreed on five key proposals of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum proposed by the EU Commission in September 2020 and aimed at creating a uniform system of regulations and policies around migration and asylum for the EU. The main aim of the new pact was to replace the Dublin system which relied heavily on first-country-of-entry criteria creating a burden for frontline member states.

Angelo Martelli
MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 56

Without a serious change in the regulations, or a substantial investment in the bureaucratic capacity and the infrastructure for migrants, Dublin is bound to be more real on paper than in practice and many ports of entry are likely to remain in a constant state of emergency.

Pietro Galeone
ai 3
2023 - n° 55

While increased bureaucratic documentation might make the European AI research landscape less appealing, better documentation will likely result in more thorough and potentially meaningful research.

Dirk Hovy
ai 3
2023 - n° 53

In the absence of crystal-clear considerations to be drawn on the legal domain, it is advisable to refrain from celebrating the AI Act (as well as its alleged substantial failure) as a turning point or a historical achievement. Let the final legal provisions speak, first.

Marco Bassini, Oreste Pollicino
wEUbinar pnrr
2023 - n° 50

Inflation rates in the euro area and US increased sharply in 2022, in part following large energy price shocks. This column analyses the pass-through from energy prices to core inflation since the 1970s for the US and Germany. It shows that this pass-through is not constant over time, but time-varying. Pass-through from energy to inflation during the 1970s was high in the US, but not in Germany. Both countries experienced high pass-through in 2022, but this has declined in the most recent quarters, consistent with a return to more normal inflation dynamics.

Pietro Galeone, Daniel Gros
MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 49

As the discussion on the next EU enlargement that might include Ukraine in the bloc proceeds, the support of European citizens to support Ukrainians remains solid but not as solid as in the recent past. Eupinions - a Bertelsman Stigtung project - has monitored how the EU sentiment has evolved towards Ukraine over 18 months.

Stefano Feltri
wEUbinar pnrr
2023 - n° 45

There is no doubt that monetary policy reacted late to the rising inflationary pressures experienced in 2021-22. The major central banks subsequently caught up rapidly and hiked interest rates at an unprecedented pace. However, as inflation reached its peak at the end of 2022 and has been falling since then, central banks may once again be late in adjusting their policies.

Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 43

The way the EU Commission and governments envisage launching future enlargements without strengthening the EU in parallel could have negative consequences for all Europeans, in the EU and in candidate countries.

Sylvie Goulard
wEUbinar pnrr
2023 - n° 42

The US and the euro area have similar headline inflation rates, but very different drivers. In the US, inflation is mainly driven by housing costs. By contrast in the euro area energy now provides an important negative element, that is offset to a large extent by still increasing food prices

Pietro Galeone, Daniel Gros
ottaviano
2023 - n° 39

On November 13, the Institute for European Policymaking co-organized with IAI, the Istituto per gli Affari Internazionali, an event in Rome dedicated to discussing the implication of the US Industrial Reduction Act on European industries and, specifically, on Italian companies.

Stefano Feltri
ottaviano
2023 - n° 36

Ralph Ossa, a professor of Economics at the University of Zurich currently on leave, has been appointed as the WTO chief economist in the most challenging time for the organization.  In the first World Trade Report since his appointment, Ralph Ossa and his colleagues challenge the prevalent narrative of an inevitable decline of globalization that we have experienced in the last three decades.  

Stefano Feltri
Italy and Europe
2023 - n° 31

Our analysis indicates that the budgetary documents presented by the Italian government are based on excessively optimistic forecasts regarding GDP growth, the effectiveness of budgetary measures and the revenues connected to privatizations. As a result, the very small projected decline in the public debt/GDP ratio is not likely.

Carlo Bastasin, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Sergio De Nardis, Marcello Messori, Stefano Micossi.
MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 30

How can broad public support for policy reforms and gridlock be overcome? The main mechanism for achieving this in political systems across the democratic world is open competition for the main executive office: the President of the Commission, in the case of the EU.  

Italy and Europe
2023 - n° 28

La Nota di Aggiornamento del DEF (Nadef) e la bozza della Legge di Bilancio del Governo Meloni indicano obiettivi e programmi di politica economica sulla cui credibilità gravano varie ipoteche. Le difficili condizioni dell’economia internazionale e l’intrinseca debolezza della finanza pubblica italiana possono mettere in questione gli impegni dichiarati dal governo, con implicazioni per la stabilità finanziaria del paese.

Carlo Bastasin, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Sergio De Nardis, Marcello Messori, Stefano Mecossi.
Italy and Europe
2023 - n° 27

As the path to fiscal sustainability narrows, so does Italy’s political capital to credibly advocate a radical reform of EU fiscal rules. Italy's primary balance will need to improve by 0.9% of GDP each year in both 2025 and 2026: similarly sized improvements were recorded in only 3 of the 20 years before the pandemic (2 of which were at the height of the Eurozone crisis, in 2011 and 2012).

Silvia Merler
MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 25

Rebuilding trust in the EU would entail the recognition that the winners of yesterday are not the winners of today or tomorrow. In a world of endemic uncertainty and repeated shocks, to avoid zero-sum games, an insurance-based solidarity is needed where support will depend on who suffers more from the shocks.  

MANIFESTO 2
2023 - n° 23

To understand the feasibility of further integration, we study the extent and evolution of cultural and policy views heterogeneity in Europe leveraging international survey data. We calculate the distribution of cultural and policy views distance both across and within countries.  We find that cultural heterogeneity has increased along both dimensions in the past but has decreased in the most recent wave.

Alberto Binetti; Guido Tabellini
ai 3
2023 - n° 22

The ongoing conversation among the European Union institutions that started when the Commission released its proposal also features a variety of views on which (and how many) authorities both at EU level and at Member State should lead the governance of AI.

Marco Bassini
wEUbinar pnrr
2023 - n° 20

Federal Reserve monetary policy has been more expansionary than the one predicted by the rule until the second quarter of 2022, then this tendency was reversed.  The evidence is very different for the case of the Euro area, where the observed policy rates are consistently below those predicted by the model and fluctuate outside the range compatible with the model-related uncertainty.

Carlo Favero
wEUbinar pnrr
2023 - n° 20

Federal Reserve monetary policy has been more expansionary than the one predicted by the rule until the second quarter of 2022, then this tendency was reversed.  The evidence is very different for the case of the Euro area, where the observed policy rates are consistently below those predicted by the model and fluctuate outside the range compatible with the model-related uncertainty.

Carlo Favero
Italy and Europe
2023 - n° 17

The ratification of the modified ESM treaty by the Greek parliament took place easily, and smoothly, without the usual political tensions. The text was submitted to the plenary on the 28th of June 2021 and a week later, on July 6th, it was adopted by a large majority. Only the Greek Communist Party and minor parties of the extreme left and right voted against it. It was practically a non-issue for the mainstream Greek political parties and Greek citizens. Why so?

Anny Podimata
ottaviano
2023 - n° 14

L'Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), firmato dal Presidente degli Stati Uniti Joe Biden quasi un anno fa (agosto 2022), è il primo importante provvedimento per contrastare il cambiamento climatico che il parlamento degli Stati Uniti abbia mai approvato. La ragione principale di questo successo è che l’IRA non impone oneri all’industria USA ma garantisce molti sussidi.

Daniel Gros

IEP@BU Contributors