Publications

The bankruptcy of a little-known US car parts company exposes the risks created by years of easy money, weak oversight, and renewed deregulation. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Currently, manufacturers are requesting permission to continue using combustion engines. But would such a step backward truly benefit European consumers and workers? A commentary by Francesco Zirpoli

A message by the Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus with concrete policy proposals to inform the first EU anti-poverty strategy.

Global economic forecasts show little concern for mounting geopolitical uncertainty, but the risks are real. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

One year after the EU imposed large anti-subsidy tariffs on imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs), tariffs appear to have had little impact. A Policy Brief by Daniel Gros, Giorgio Presidente, and Niccolò Rotondi

The European Commission is working on its forthcoming anti-poverty strategy. A successful Italian experiment offers a potential large-scale solution. A commentary by Michela Carlana

Our technologies advance faster than our understanding of them – and that widening epistemic gap may pose humanity’s greatest risk. A commentary by Joel Mokyr, 2025 Nobel Laureate in Economics.

By most fundamentals, the single currency should be weakening, yet it keeps rising against the dollar and other major currencies. It may have to do with the ECB’s monetary stance. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

 Despite tighter US monetary policy and stronger growth, the greenback has depreciated against the euro - with major implications for Europe. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori 

Mitigating the risks of budget substitution, procurement delays, and legal derogations. A commentary by Edith Wagner

The euro–dollar exchange rate has returned to its 1999 debut level as Trump’s policies unsettle markets and reopen questions about the balance of power between the two currencies. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Stronger-than-expected growth and persistent inflation cast doubt on further easing, raising tensions with Trump and investors. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Limited volatility suggests that European markets now view U.S. elections as external political events rather than systemic risks requiring defensive positioning. A commentary by Corrado Botta

Scientific evidence shows that climate change is already the third-largest driver of biodiversity loss globally, a threat that will intensify if climate change worsens. Conversely, biodiversity loss worsens climate change. A commentary by J. Christopher Proctor, and Romain Svartzman

The fall in the BTP–Bund spread says more about Berlin’s fiscal drift than Rome’s newfound virtue. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

The ECB’s plan could duplicate private solutions, burden taxpayers, destabilise banks, and breach the EU ban on financing member states’ public debt. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Why a binding minimum income must anchor the EU’s anti-poverty strategy. A commentary by Pietro Galeone.

 Italy’s debt risk is rooted in economics; France’s in politics. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Rome has long been better at divisions than mergers. Now, Italy’s newest banking giant must prove it has a credible plan — and the right people to execute it. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

The digital euro should be seen as more than a monetary instrument. It is a social experiment in how Europe can combine technological progress with democratic legitimacy to deliver digital infrastructures at scale. A commentary by Claudio Tebaldi 

The question is not whether the EU needs deeper and more liquid capital markets, but how to create them. One obstacle lies in the structure of EU capital markets law. A commentary by Giovanni Strampelli, and Rüdiger Veil 

Markets once sighed with relief when Donald Trump shelved the idea of firing the Fed chair. That comfort was misplaced. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Ursula Von der Leyen calls for a tougher stance on Israel, forcing the Council to weigh economic ties against the Union’s principles. A commentary by Giorgio Presidente

Europe seeks to achieve security through greater strategic autonomy, but this requires the intellectual capacity to define objectives, align ends and means, anticipate adversaries, and adapt to uncertainty. A Policy Brief by Andrea Gilli, Mauro Gilli, and Niccolò Petrelli

French politics highlights the vicious cycle of cuts, disillusionment, and populist advance. A commentary by Catherine E. De Vries

US tariffs clearly violate all global trading rules. One might thus fear that the entire global trading system would suffer if ‘might is right’ overrides these rules.  However, this has not happened so far.  A Policy Brief by Daniel Gros and Niccolò Rotondi.

 One year on, the European Commission has applauded Mario Draghi’s proposals — but failed to apply them. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

 Italy’s recurring debate on “extra-profits” misses the point — such levies weaken lending and harm the wider economy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

As pressure on central banks grows, the Eurozone’s institution cannot avoid greater responsibility. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Europe’s most decisive investment lies not in institutions or markets, but in its young citizens. A commentary by Stefano Caselli

 Europe’s true problem is not irrelevance, but its difficulty in managing its relevance. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Not every crisis makes Europe stronger and more united, as the EU’s reaction to the second Trump administration shows

Propping up EU firms hit by US tariffs with public funds risks taxing Europeans to subsidise American consumption and federal revenues. A commentary by Marcello Messori

Europe’s exemption from US tariffs in aerospace highlights what the continent lacks elsewhere: unity, scale, and strategy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

If public awareness of the need to protect nature increases and new tools are developed, this will pave the way for credits that generate revenue for those who protect, rather than destroy, natural resources.  A commentary by Sylvie Goulard

The IMF’s estimate—suggesting internal EU trade barriers amount to a 44% tariff— cited even by Mario Draghi in an Ft article lacks solid analytical foundations. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The EU Commission struggles to reconcile scarcity of funding, sustainability goals and the consensus of small farms. A commentary by Pietro Galeone, and Federica Maria Raiti

Funding Innovation in Europe with the Next Framework Programme: a commentary by Daniel Gros, and Giorgio Presidente

With its proposed Space Label and strict oversight regime, the EU aims to lead on responsible space governance. Yet this pioneering effort could turn into a stress test for the Union. A commentary by Simonetta Di Pippo 

Why European monetary sovereignty is at stake. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

For the first time, the EPP can forge shifting coalitions with partners whose visions for Europe are fundamentally at odds—paralysing policy-making and exposing the Union’s underlying fragility. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori

As the old saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.

Interview with Dagmar M. Schuller, CEO and Co-Founder of audEERING, on the findings of the joint IEP@BU–EconPol/ifo report on European innovation policy. By Stefano Feltri.

Europe must tackle its "internal tariffs" in response to Trump’s protectionism, but carefully. A commentary by Marco Buti, and Marcello Messori.

Competitiveness has returned to the top of the EU agenda, with the EU Competitiveness Compass highlighting the need for innovation-driven growth. But European industry has fallen behind in innovation by specializing in mid-tech industries, now increasingly subject to Chinese competition.

Since the start of Horizon 2020, the EU budget has provided about €100 billion to support research and innovation. But this seems to have had little impact.

A large proportion of Horizon funding has gone to a small number of big corporations with modest innovation and growth performance. Another sizable share goes to SMEs that are part of wider corporate groups.

Moreover, the lion’s share of Horizon funding has gone to collaborative programs, with detailed guidelines on research topics and expected outcomes, typically involving broad-based consortia with more than 20 participants. Yet our analysis suggests that bottom-up programs undertaken by individual recipients yield better results, but only if the recipients are independent SMEs.

Any new Framework Program should thus focus on funding ideas, not companies. They key is not more money, but rather leaving space for disruptive innovation by encouraging bottom-up initiatives, especially by small independent companies.

Anyone who holds even a small amount of power clings to it and is unwilling to let go. This is why European countries are determined to keep their right of veto. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Budgetary targets are politically expedient but of little policy value. A commentary by Andrea Gilli

At the European Commission level, the diffusion of responsibility in matters of demography creates both challenges and opportunities for policymaking: while it risks fragmentation, it also opens the door to a more integrated and coordinated approach. A Policy Brief by Arnstein Assve, and Elisa Latora.

A report  requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. By Ignazio Angeloni, and Cédric Tille

The US President attacks a central bank that is merely applying the lessons of the post-Covid era. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

A Critical Analysis of Regulatory Evolution, Stakeholder Alignment, and the Rise of Passive Resistance within the EU Framework. A paper by Pascal Durand.

Diluting reporting obligations risks creating uncertainty, weakening Europe’s competitive edge in green innovation, and sending conflicting signals to companies and financial institutions that have already invested heavily in compliance. A Policy Brief by Sylvie Goulard, and Keraron Aure 

Over 93 million people in the EU remain at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2024, underscoring the urgent need for stronger social protection. While minimum income schemes remain a vital tool in combating poverty, significant reforms are needed to ensure they fulfil their intended role effectively.

A message from the President of the Republic of Italy Sergio Mattarella on the occasion of the annual event of the Institute for European Policymaking

Trump’s defeat offers a cautionary tale for the European Union. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

A great legacy of the European Council of Milan is the image of a Europe that does not need to be either unanimous or uniform in order to proceed toward its development, precisely insofar as one can trust one another. A commentary by Marta Cartabia

No municipality, no government, no company functions on the basis of unanimity. Why should the European Union content itself with this constraint? A commentary by Sylvie Goulard

Milan 1985: When Politics—and Italy—Propelled Europe Forward. What About Today?  By Mario Mont

Regulators now face a delicate balancing act: fostering innovation while preserving stability and public confidence—particularly in money as a store of value and a reliable medium of exchange. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Forty years ago, Milan hosted the pivotal 1985 European Council where, for the first time, a vote was called — breaking with tradition and setting Europe on a new course. By Catherine De Vries 

Eurobonds can be issued to provide new resources or to become the safe asset for the European financial market, not both. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

A preliminary legal analysis of the proposal for a European Debt Agency (EDA). EDA represents a ground-breaking initiative to address the complex challenges of sovereign debt management within the European Union. A Working Paper  by Rosalba Famà, and Maria Antonia Panascì

At the June 1985 European Council meeting, in Milan, the diverging views about the future of Europe – its identity as a common trading area or as a more cohesive bloc – were bound to clash strongly, given the fact that the meeting was intended to consider various proposals for the reform of the European institutions. A paper by Andrea Colli

At the Castello Sforzesco, in the 1985 meeting, the European Council agreed with the Commission’s conclusion that an internal market could provide the economic and social “crisis management” the Community needed and secure its global economic competitiveness. A paper by Grace Ballor

A political deadlock between a pro-European government and a euroskeptic president could weaken the country's standing within the EU and undermine the European response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A commentary by Catherine De Vries

In response to US protectionism, many governments decry fragmentation in the European market — barriers they themselves enforce. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

While the proof of the pudding will be, as always, in the eating, the UK-EU 19 May Summit can justly be said to have laid out an enticing menu. A commentary by Sir Alan Dashwood

In this paper, we unpack the logic—and the unintended fallout—of the Trump administration’s tariff strategy. We present our analysis as an imagined conversation between President Trump and the late historian Carlo M. Cipolla. A paper by Marco Buti and Marcello Messori

The US-China tariff negotiations and a renewed focus on the long term should not lead the ECB to reconsider its decision. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

We advocate a phased, reform-oriented, and strategically coherent approach that aligns defense effectiveness with fiscal responsibility and democratic legitimacy. A Policy Brief by Andrea Gilli,and Walter Rauti

The European Union has the money to attract researchers under threat in the US and should coordinate a scheme to deploy it. A commentary by Heather Grabbe, and Daniel Gros.

To truly compete on the global stage, the eurozone must mutualise part of its public debt—and build a deeper, more efficient capital market. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

To enable the United Kingdom to take part in programmes on procurement, standardisation, interoperability, and industrial cooperation, a new institutional framework is needed—potentially inspired by the EU–Switzerland committee model. A commentary by Jonathan Faull 

It is time for an ambitious foreign policy, security and defence partnership (FSDP) between the EU and the UK, tailored to reflect the UK’s unique situation, which should be swiftly negotiated and concluded. A commentary by Alan Dashwood 

The discussion focused on progress made so far and the challenges that still lie ahead in shaping a new framework for UK–EU collaboration in security and defence.

To restart growth, the EU needs to focus on productivity and innovation. This does not require hundreds of billions of euros in new expenditure, but rather a sharp focus on the efficiency of existing budgets coupled with innovation-friendly rulemaking. A Policy Brief by Daniel Gros, and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard 

Lessons from first principles of classic trade policy welfare analysis. A Policy Brief by Daniel Gros

Replacing the Chair is not enough to change monetary policy, as Trump would like — namely, to lower interest rates to boost economic growth. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

The real challenge is not the size of successful tech firms per se, but how their scale is leveraged — whether to support vibrant ecosystems or to entrench monopolistic control. A commentary by Francesco Decarolis.

April’s US inflation data will offer the first glimpse of the real impact of the global trade war that the US administration launched on the “Liberation Day”. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

A rise in US Treasury yields would immediately feed through into other countries’ borrowing costs, tightening global financial conditions. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

There are immediate liquidity problems, and then the choice between lowering inflation risk or supporting the economy. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Tariff moves have also compromised the rest of the Trump administration’s strategy, from taxes to energy. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Direct public subsidies to Chinese BEV producers in the forms of grants and tax breaks are relatively small. The Commission motivates a large part of the countervailing duties (CVD) with the argument that entire markets in China are so distorted by industrial policies that the Chinese BEV producers do not face market prices for credit and batteries. A Policy Brief by Daniel Gros, and Weinian Hu 

Is the world de-globalizing? Is the global economy fragmenting along geopolitical lines? This article provides an overview of the available empirical evidence on de-globalization and fragmentation. A working paper by Italo Colantone

Mainstream politicians must ensure that the state can once again be a force for good. This means investing in public service delivery, allowing houses to be built, and reducing administrative burdens. A commentary by Catherine De Vries

The ECB might counterbalance the impact of tariffs by steering the exchange rate, but that would be a mistake. Maintaining a focus on price stability is paramount.

The advantages of the Trump administration's ‘reciprocal’ tariff structure for EU industry on the US market are likely to outweigh the direct impact of the 20% tariff that EU exports will now face. A commentary by Daniel Gros

By supporting Marine Le Pen, members of the international nationalist coalition have put partisan solidarity before defending the interests of national taxpayers. A commentary by Sylvie Goulard 

The intrinsic contradictions of Trump’s strategy will strike the United States where it is most vulnerable: inflation and employment. In the ensuing moves of this chess game, it is vital to project both strength and flexibility. A commentary by Ignazio Angeloni

Amid Trump’s activism, many accuse Europe of lacking timely and effective decision-making. But distinctions are necessary. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

Weakening the EU climate corporate reporting in the name of competitiveness, or complementing it with specific measures to mitigate its negative economic impacts? A commentary by Sylvie Goulard, Mélanie Marten, Thomas Rowley, Romain Svartzman 

While economic theory and empirical evidence on human capital affirm the positive effects of education and training on productivity and economic growth, there is a tendency to treat skills enhancement as a universal remedy for labor market inefficiencies. A Policy Brief by Pietro Galeone

A firm but measured response, aligned with rules and European interests, is better than excessive conciliation with the US administration. Here's why. A commentary by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi

From Germany's debt choices to Italy’s stance on rearmament, Ambassador Luigi Mattiolo analyses how the EU is evolving in the age of Trump. An interview by Stefano Feltri